随着电动汽车热潮兴起 全球电池需求将增长15倍

颗粒在线讯：据油价网3月2日消息称，随着能源转型的加快，各国和消费者都在努力实现脱碳，全球电池需求可能呈指数级增长，到2030年将达到每年9太瓦时(TWh)，是2021年水平的15倍。

Rystad Energy 研究表明，尽管 2021 年全球电池需求为 580 吉瓦时 (GWh)，是 2020 年总量的两倍多，但全球供应仍然能够保持下去。然而，随着人们对乘用车电池技术和固定存储技术的需求大幅增长，这一局面将在未来几年发生改变，这将给供应链带来压力。

这一需求预测与全球变暖1.6度的情景和能源系统所需的变化是一致的。它也不受任何潜在供应问题的限制。在零部件方面，锂离子电池将在这十年主导市场，而钠离子电池的需求将在2030年实现。

乘用电动汽车 (EV) 将成为未来电池增长的最重要贡献者，到本世纪二十年代末将占总需求的 55% 左右。到2030年，这些电池的需求预计将达到4.9太瓦时，比2021年相对较小的373吉瓦时的总需求高出13倍以上。

固定存储将是第二重要的贡献者，预计到2030年的需求将超过2.5太瓦时，占总市场的29%。随着世界逐渐远离化石燃料，不稳定的可再生能源将扮演更重要的角色，因此到2021年，存储需求将从139吉瓦时飙升。

轻型至中型商用车在未来将主要实现电气化，到2030年将贡献约1太瓦时的需求。电气化的航空和航运也会有电池需求，但这些行业的总需求不会对全球格局产生重大影响。

Rystad Energy全球能源系统负责人Marius Foss说：“随着能源转型的加快，电池需求的增长是不可避免的，但在不久的将来，如果没有对电池技术的大量投资或改进，全球供应将出现短缺。根据已公布的目标，到2030年电池供应将达到5.5太瓦时，只能满足约60%的预期需求。超级工厂正在全球迅速建立，这种供应前景可能会改变。然而，这些持续投资的重要性不容低估。”

曹海斌 摘译自 油价网

原文如下：

Global Battery Demand To Increase 15-Fold As EV Boom Takes Off

As the energy transition quickens and countries and consumers strive to decarbonize, global battery demand could surge exponentially and approach nine terawatt-hours (TWh) annually by 2030, 15 times the levels seen in 2021.

Rystad Energy research shows that although global battery demand in 2021 stood at 580 gigawatt-hours (GWh), more than double 2020’s total, global supply was still able to keep up. However, that is set to change in the coming years as the appetite for battery technologies in passenger vehicles and stationary storage grows significantly, straining the supply chain.

This demand projection is in line with a 1.6-degree global warming scenario and the changes required to energy systems. It is also unconstrained by any potential supply issues. In terms of components, lithium-ion batteries will dominate the market this decade, although sodium-ion battery demand will materialize by 2030.

Passenger electric vehicles (EV) will be the most significant contributor to future battery growth, accounting for about 55% of total demand by the end of the decade. Demand for these batteries is expected to hit 4.9 TWh by 2030, more than 13 times higher than 2021’s comparatively tiny total of 373 GWh.

Stationary storage will be the next-most significant contributor, with a projected demand of more than 2.5 TWh in 2030, 29% of the total market. The need for storage is set to soar from 139 GWh in 2021 because of the more prominent role that volatile renewable energy sources will play as the world shifts away from fossil fuels.

Light to medium-heavy commercial vehicles will mainly be electrified in the future, contributing about 1 TWh of demand by 2030. Electrified aviation and shipping will also have battery needs, but the total demand from these sectors will not significantly impact the global picture.

“Battery demand growth is inevitable as the energy transition quickens, but global supply will fall short without substantial investment or improvements in battery technology in the immediate future. Based on announced targets, battery supply will hit 5.5 TWh by 2030, meeting only about 60% of the expected demand. Gigafactories are being built quickly worldwide, and this supply outlook will likely change. Still, the importance of these continued investments cannot be understated,” says Marius Foss, head of global energy systems at Rystad Energy.