麦肯锡：全球石油需求可能在2025年达到峰值

颗粒在线讯：据海上工程师网2022年4月26日报道，全球管理咨询公司麦肯锡公司在一份新报告中表示，随着能源转型的持续推进以及电动汽车的普及，全球石油需求可能在2025年达到峰值。

麦肯锡公司高级合伙人克里斯特·特里格加斯塔德表示：“过去几年，我们确实看到能源转型加快的步伐。每年我们都会发布这份报告，全球石油需求峰值正在临近。根据我们的中间假设，全球石油需求甚至可能在未来三到五年内达到峰值，主要是由于电动汽车的采用和普及。”

“然而，即使所有净零承诺的国家都实现了它们的愿望，全球气候变暖预计仍将达到1.7摄氏度。” 特里格加斯塔德如是说。

据麦肯锡公司预计，到2050年前，可再生电力预计将增长3倍，到2030年前将占全球发电量的50%，到2050年前将占80%-90%。到2050年前，氢气需求量预计将增长4-6倍，主要由公路运输、海运和航空驱动。到2050年前，氢气和氢气衍生合成燃料预计将占全球最终能源消耗的10%。

麦肯锡说，快速的技术发展和供应链优化共同使太阳能的成本降低一半，而风能的成本也下降近三分之一。 因此，61%的新可再生能源装机容量的价格已经低于化石燃料替代品。电池成本在过去4年也下降近一半。

全球石油需求预计将在未来三到五年内达到峰值，到2050年前，碳捕获、利用和封存（CCUS）技术可能会从目前几乎不存在的规模增长逾100倍，投资机会将超过目前的液化天然气市场。  

麦肯锡公司表示，未来能源投资的增长将几乎完全由可再生能源和脱碳技术推动。

此外，尽管各国政府和企业承诺到2050年前实现净零排放，可再生能源系统达到85%，电动汽车和脱碳技术的快速更新，但全球气候变暖预计将超过1.7摄氏度。  

李峻 编译自 海上工程师网

原文如下：

Oil Demand Could Peak as Soon as 2025, McKinsey Says

Oil demand could peak as soon as 2025, as the energy transition continues to gain steam and as electric vehicle adoption increases, McKinsey & Company said in a new report.

Christer Tryggestad, a Senior Partner at McKinsey, says: “In the past few years, we have certainly seen the energy transition pick up pace. Every year we’ve published this report, peak oil demand has moved closer. Under our middle scenario assumptions, oil demand could even peak in the next three to five years, primarily driven by electric-vehicle adoption."

“However, even if all countries with net zero commitments deliver on their aspirations, global warming is still expected to reach 1.7°C. To keep the 1.5°C pathway in sight, even more ambitious acceleration is needed.”

According to McKinsey, renewables are projected to grow 3x by 2050, accounting for 50% of power generation globally already by 2030 and 80-90% by 2050. Hydrogen demand is expected to grow 4-6x by 2050, driven primarily by road transport, maritime, and aviation, and hydrogen and hydrogen-derived synfuels are expected to account for 10% of global final energy consumption by 2050.

Rapid technological developments and supply chain optimization have collectively halved the cost of solar, while wind costs have also fallen by almost one-third. As a result, 61% of new renewable capacity installation is already priced lower than fossil fuel alternatives. Battery costs have also fallen by nearly half in the past four year, McKinsey said.

Global oil demand is projected to peak in the next three to five years, and by 2050, CCUS could grow more than 100-fold from an almost non-existent footprint today, with investment opportunities exceeding LNG markets today.

According to McKinsey, future growth in energy investments will almost entirely be driven by renewables and decarbonisation technologies. 

Also, despite net-zero commitments from governments and corporations, and 85% renewable power system by 2050, and the rapid update of EVs and decarbonization technologies, global warming is projected to exceed 1.7 degrees.