锂可以成为化石燃料更有利可图替代品吗?

● 由于向绿色能源的转变，全球对锂、铜和锌的需求正在迅速增加

● 锂储量丰富的澳大利亚正将注意力转向开采这种矿物，以促进经济繁荣，减少对化石燃料的依赖

● 到2027—2028年，澳大利亚的锂产量预计将翻一番，收入将增加两倍，有可能超过南美洲的锂三角开发项目，成为世界上最大的锂生产国

颗粒在线讯：据油价网2023年4月16日报道，尽管世界仍严重依赖化石燃料及其带来的收入，但随着绿色能源的普及，我们可以预计将出现一系列新的高成本能源项目，这些项目可能为各国带来数十亿美元的收入。多年来，全球对金属材料和矿产品的需求一直在上升，而且还在继续快速攀升——事实上，速度太快了，采矿活动无法跟上。由于世界正在经历绿色转型，对这些资源的需求量越来越大，诸如锂等矿产品以及铜和锌等金属材料的价格预计将飙升。而这可能正是从化石燃料转向绿色替代品所需要的激励。

澳大利亚的经济繁荣和能源安全仍然严重依赖煤炭开采，现在它开始将注意力转向锂。凭借丰富的采矿经验和巨大的锂储量，澳大利亚可以在绿色转型中发挥重要作用，并在此过程中获得丰厚的利润。智利和澳大利亚是世界上锂储量最大的国家，分别拥有920万吨和570万吨。虽然智利拥有更大的锂储量，但澳大利亚已经成功地开发了其采矿潜力，到2022年，澳大利亚的锂产量约为68450吨，而智利的锂产量为26000吨。

尽管有可能转向锂矿开采，但澳大利亚每年仍在开采大量的煤炭，煤炭是最脏的化石燃料。2021年澳大利亚煤炭产量增加了大约3.5%，2022年煤炭产量持平，为5.651亿吨。虽然到2050年实现澳大利亚政府的净零碳排放目标面临巨大压力，但截至2021年12月，有37个煤炭项目处于可行性阶段。澳大利亚拥有741.47亿吨黑煤和740.39亿吨褐煤储量，难怪澳大利亚希望继续生产化石燃料，特别是亚洲对澳大利亚煤炭出口的需求仍然很高。然而，对于澳大利亚采矿业来说，现在可能有一种更清洁、更有利可图的替代品——锂。

由于电动汽车的普及和其他电池技术的发展，对这种白色金属的需求增加，未来五年内，澳大利亚的锂出口收入可能会与动力煤的销售收入持平。与此同时，由于对绿色替代品的需求减弱，化石燃料的价值预计将下降。澳大利亚政府最近公布的数据显示，到2027—2028年，澳大利亚的锂产量可能会翻一番，收入预计将增加两倍。与此同时，澳大利亚的煤炭出口价值预计将下降70%以上。

今年锂的价值预计将达到190亿美元左右，然后随着世界各地新锂矿的投产，供需平衡，锂的价格会下降。由于需求在未来几十年继续攀升，锂的价值预计将在这次下跌之后再次上涨。从现在到2030年，电动汽车的销量预计将增长10倍，而电动设备和可再生能源项目对电池的需求预计将大幅增长，因此对锂的需求将大大增加。

除了锂，澳大利亚的镍储量约占全球储量的22%，钴储量约占全球储量的21%，这意味着不再使用煤炭并不意味着澳大利亚采矿业或在国际能源行业中的角色的终结。

澳大利亚的目标是到2026年前每年生产116240吨锂，这可能使其成为世界上最大的锂生产国。澳大利亚将面临智利、玻利维亚和阿根廷之间的南美锂三角开发项目的激烈竞争。这三个南美国家加起来约占全球锂供应的56%。

由于世界从化石燃料转向绿色替代品，澳大利亚等国家有巨大的潜力来调整自己的采矿业务，并在全球金属材料和矿产品市场上实现自我定位。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Could Lithium Become A More Lucrative Alternative To Fossil Fuels?

·     Global demand for lithium, copper and zinc is increasing rapidly due to the shift towards green energy.

·     Australia, with significant lithium reserves, is turning its attention to mining this mineral for economic prosperity and to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

·     Australia's lithium production is expected to double by 2027-28, with revenues tripling, potentially overtaking the South American Lithium Triangle development to become the world's biggest producer.

While the world is still relying heavily on fossil fuels, and the revenues they bring in, as green energy becomes more widespread, we can expect a new range of high-cost energy projects that could earn countries billions. The global demand for metals and minerals has been on the rise for years and is continuing to climb rapidly –too fast, in fact, for mining activities to keep up. As the need for these resources becomes greater as the world undergoes a green transition, the price of minerals, such as lithium, and metals, such as copper and zinc, are expected to soar. And this could be just the incentive that is needed to turn efforts away from fossil fuels to greener alternatives. 

Australia, which still relies heavily on coal mining for its economic prosperity and energy security, is beginning to turn its attention to lithium. With extensive mining experience and huge lithium reserves, Australia could play a major role in the green transition and make good money while doing it. Chile and Australia are home to the largest lithium reserves in the world, with 9.2 million metric tonnes and 5.7 million metric tonnes of lithium respectively. And while Chile has the bigger reserves, Australia is already exploiting its mining potential successfully, with a lithium output of around 68,450 metric tonnes in 2022 compared to Chile’s 26,000 tonnes output. 

Despite the potential for a shift to lithium mining, Australia continues to mine huge amounts of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, every year. Australia’s coal production increased by around 3.5 percent in 2021 and remained flat in 2022, at 565.1 million metric tonnes. While there is significant pressure to achieve the government’s net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 target, by December 2021 there were 37 coal projects at the feasibility stage. With 74,147 million tonnes of black coal and 74,039 Mt of brown coal, it’s no wonder that Australia wants to continue producing the fossil fuel, particularly as demand for Australian coal exports in Asia remains high. However, there may now be a cleaner and more lucrative alternative for the mining industry – lithium. 

Australian lithium exports could be earning as much as sales from thermal coal within the next five years as demand for the white gold increases with the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and other battery technology rises. Meanwhile, the value of fossil fuels is expected to decrease as demand trails off in favour of green alternatives. Recent data from the Australian government suggests that the country’s lithium production could double by 2027-28, with revenues expected to triple. And the value of Australia’s coal exports is expected to fall by over 70 over the same period. 

The price of lithium is expected to reach around $19 billion this year before dropping off as new mines open around the world, balancing out supply and demand. The value of lithium is expected to rise again after this slump as demand continues to climb well into the next decades. With EV sales projected to see tenfold growth between now and 2030, as well as the demand for batteries for electrical devices and renewable energy projects expected to rise sharply, there will be a much greater need for lithium.

In addition to lithium, Australia has around 22 percent of the world’s nickel reserves and 21 percent of its cobalt, meaning that a move away from coal does not spell the end for the country’s mining industry or role in the international energy industry.

Australia aims to be producing 116,240 tonnes of lithium a year by 2026, which could make it the world’s biggest producer. Although it will see strong competition from the South American Lithium Triangle development between Chile, Bolivia and Argentina. The three countries together account for approximately 56percent of the world’s lithium supply. 

Australia and those in the Lithium Triangle have significant potential to shape their mining operations and position themselves in the global metals and minerals market as the world shifts away from fossil fuels to green alternatives

（责任编辑：黄振 审核：蒋文娟 ）